Out-of-pocket expenditures associated with double disease burden in Pakistan: a quantile regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan is currently experiencing a double burden of disease. Families with members having both communicable and noncommunicable diseases are at a greater risk of impoverishment due to enormous out-of-pocket payments. This study examines the percentile distribution of the determinants of the out-of-pocket expenditure on the double disease burden. METHOD: The study extracted a sample of 6,775 households with at least one member experiencing both communicable and noncommunicable diseases from the Household Integrated Economic Survey 2018-19. The dataset is cross-sectional and nationally representative. Quantile regression was used to analyze the association of various socioeconomic factors with the OOP expenditure associated with double disease burden. RESULTS: Overall, 28.5% of households had double disease in 2018-19. The households with uneducated heads, male heads, outpatient healthcare, patients availing public sector healthcare services, and rural and older members showed a significant association with the prevalence of double disease. The out-of-pocket expenditure was higher for depression, liver and kidney disease, hepatitis, and pneumonia in the upper percentiles. The quantile regression results showed that an increased number of communicable and noncommunicable diseases was associated with higher monthly OOP expenditure in the lower percentiles (10th percentile, coefficient 312, 95% CI: 92-532), and OOP expenditure was less pronounced among the higher percentiles (75th percentile, coefficient 155, 95% CI: 30-270). The households with older members were associated with higher OOP expenditure at higher tails (50th and 75th percentiles) compared to lower (10th and 25th percentiles). Family size was associated with higher OOPE at lower percentiles than higher ones. CONCLUSION: The coexistence of communicable and noncommunicable diseases is associated with excessive private healthcare costs in Pakistan. The results call for addressing the variations in financial costs associated with double diseases.

The hepatoprotective potentials of Olea europaea L. leaves against carbon tetrachloride-induced hepatic injury in rats.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the therapeutic effects of Olea europaea L. leaves extract on carbon tetrachloride-induced liver injury in rats. Methods: The experimental study was conducted at the Department of Physiology, University of Karachi, Karachi, in July 2021, and comprised Albino Wistar male rats weighing 180-220gm. The animals were divided into control group I, carbon tetrachloride group II, Olea europaea L. + carbon tetrachloride group III and Olea europaea L. group IV. In Vitro model of hepatic toxicity was developed by carbon tetrachloride. A daily dose of 50mg/kg of aqueous extract of olive leaves was administered orally and 0.8ml/kg of carbon tetrachloride was administered twice a week subcutaneously for 28 days. On the 29th day, the animals were sacrificed, and tested for hepatic enzymes, lipid peroxidation markers and histopathology. Data was analysed using SPSS 20. RESULTS: Of the 24 rats, 6(25%) were in each of the 4 groups. Alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase and total bilirubin levels were significantly reduced (p<0.05) in group II whereas, 4- hydroxynonenal, isoprostane and malondialdehyde levels were significantly increased (p<0.05). However, total antioxidant level increased significantly (p<0.05) in group III compared to group II. Histopathology showed severe liver damage in group II and mild damage in group III. Conclusion: Olea europaea L. leaves extract was found to have profound hepatoprotective effects.

Pattern and trends of the total and age-specific fertility rates during 1990-2018 in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan has an inadequate vital event registration system, leading to fewer than half of all births being registered, and this issue is further exacerbated by systematic recall errors and omission of births. This study aims to evaluate direct and indirect methods of fertility estimation to analyze the trends and patterns of fertility rates in Pakistan from 1990 to 2018. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: Indirect methods are utilized in this study to evaluate the direction and extent of changes in total and age-specific fertility rates, and these findings are compared to direct estimates. The study draws data on livebirths from four waves of the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey that took place between 1990 and 2018. To ensure the quality of data, graphical methods and Whipple and Myers indices are employed. Additionally, the Brass Relational Gompertz model was used to analyze the data. RESULTS: The Relational Gompertz model revealed that total fertility rates (TFRs) were higher than direct estimates by 0.4 children and age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) were higher for all age groups except the oldest. The difference was more significant among younger women aged 15-24, and less so for age groups 29 and above. The gap in estimated fertility between direct and indirect methods decreased with age. CONCLUSION: The indirect method is an invaluable tool in situations where direct measurement of fertility rates is challenging or impossible. By utilizing this method, policymakers can gain important insights into the fertility patterns and trends of a population, which is crucial for making informed decisions on fertility planning.

Nutritional inequalities among under-five children: a geospatial analysis of hotspots and cold spots in 73 low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Child undernutrition is a severe health problem in the developing world, which affects children's development in the long term. This study analyses the extent and patterns of under-five child undernutrition using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 73 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: First, we mapped the prevalence of undernutrition in the developing world. Second, using the LISA (a local indicator of spatial association) technique, we analyzed the geographical patterns in undernutrition to highlight the localized hotspots (regions with high undernutrition prevalence surrounded by similar other regions), cold spots (regions with low undernutrition prevalence surrounded by similar other regions), and outliers (regions with high undernutrition surrounded by low undernutrition and vice versa). Third, we used Moran's I to find global patterns in child undernutrition. RESULTS: We find that South Asia has the highest under-five child undernutrition rates. The intra-country nutritional inequalities are highest in Burundi (stunting), Kenya (wasting), and Madagascar (underweight). The local indicator of spatial association (LISA) analysis suggests that South Asia, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and Sub-Saharan Africa are undernutrition hotspots and Europe and Central Asia and Latin America, and the Caribbean are undernutrition cold spots (regions with low undernutrition surrounded by similar other regions). Getis Ord-Gi* estimates generally support LISA analysis. Moran's I and Geary's C gave similar results about the global patterns of undernutrition. Geographically weighted regressions suggest that several socioeconomic indicators significantly explain child undernutrition. CONCLUSIONS: We found a significant within and across country variation in stunting, wasting and underweight rates among the under-five children's population. The geospatial analysis also suggested that stunting, wasting, and underweight patterns exhibit clear regional patterns, underscoring the need for coordinated interventions at the regional level.

Evidence-based hepatic and renal toxicity evaluation of Prunus armeniaca L. seeds in albino Wistar rats.

The present study is a novel approach conducted to investigate dose dependent hepatotoxicity and renal toxicity of aqueous extract of Prunus armeniaca L. seeds in Albino rats. The use of the seeds is limited since the seeds have been subject of high controversy because of the presence of amygdalin, (Vitamin B-17) which in some studies revealed toxicity while in others incurred anti-cancerous ability and also scarce availability of toxicity evaluation studies which stimulates the need to expedite this study which would allow utilization of seeds in the pursuit of formulating novel remedies. 1000, 1500 and 2000mg/kg body weight of extract orally administered in experimental Groups DI, DII and DIII of rats (n=6) respectively for 42 days. Blood and tissue samples collected were then evaluated using liver enzymes; Aspartate Transaminase, Alanine Transferase, Alkaline Phosphatase and Bilirubin as hepatotoxic markers, Urea, creatinine and BUN as renal function indicators, antioxidants levels of liver and kidney; Catalase, Superoxide Dismutase and Glutathione reductase as oxidative stress markers and Melondylaldehyde as indicator of lipid peroxidation. The results displayed no significant increment (P>0.05) in liver enzymes, reduced liver and kidney MDA levels (P>0.05) and dose-dependent increased activity of antioxidants. This concludes that the extract did not show any remarkable hepatotoxicity or renal toxicity rather improved antioxidant activity. The histology of liver and kidney tissues further supported that the selected doses are safe for consumption.

Impact of high-risk fertility behaviours on underfive mortality in Asia and Africa: evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys.

BACKGROUND: Maternal age < 18 or > 34 years, short inter-pregnancy birth interval, and higher birth order are considered to be high-risk fertility behaviours (HRFB). Underfive mortality being disproportionately concentrated in Asia and Africa, this study analyses the association between HRFB and underfive mortality in selected Asian and African countries. METHODS: This study used Integrated Public Microdata Series-Demographic and Health Surveys (IPUMS-DHS) data from 32 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East, North Africa and South Asia from 1986 to 2017 (N = 1,467,728). Previous evidence hints at four markers of HRFB: women's age at birth of index child < 18 or > 34 years, preceding birth interval < 24 months and child's birth order > 3. Using logistic regression, we analysed change in the odds of underfive mortality as a result of i) exposure to HRFB individually, ii) exposure to any single HRFB risk factor, iii) exposure to multiple HRFB risk factors, and iv) exposure to specific combinations of HRFB risk factors. RESULTS: Mother's age at birth of index child < 18 years and preceding birth interval (PBI) < 24 months were significant risk factors of underfive mortality, while a child's birth order > 3 was a protective factor. Presence of any single HRFB was associated with 7% higher risk of underfive mortality (OR 1.07; 95% CI 1.04-1.09). Presence of multiple HRFBs was associated with 39% higher risk of underfive mortality (OR 1.39; 95% CI 1.36-1.43). Some specific combinations of HRFB such as maternal age < 18 years and preceding birth interval < 24 month significantly increased the odds of underfive mortality (OR 2.07; 95% CI 1.88-2.28). CONCLUSION: Maternal age < 18 years and short preceding birth interval significantly increase the risk of underfive mortality. This highlights the need for an effective legislation to curb child marriages and increased public investment in reproductive healthcare with a focus on higher contraceptive use for optimal birth spacing.

Behavioral factors associated with utilization of healthcare services among elderly in Pakistan: evidence from a nationally representative survey.

BACKGROUND: In Pakistan, health system is facing unprecedented challenges to deal with the healthcare demand of the growing ageing population. Using conceptual framework, this study aims to analyze the factors associated with the utilization of healthcare services in private and public hospitals by the elderly population. METHODS: This study used a sample of 5319 individuals aged 60 and above extracted from the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey 2014-15. We followed the Anderson's Behavioral model of healthcare utilization. The behavioral factors, including predisposing, enabling and need factors, associated with the use of healthcare care were analyzed using exploratory data analysis and binary logistic regressions. The utilization of healthcare service in the study refers to the visits to private and government hospital. RESULTS: Out of total 5319 participants around three-fourth or 72.4% of participants visited private hospitals for their healthcare needs. Multivariate analysis showed that older age-group (80 years and above) and participants from urban were 1.35 and 1.53 times more likely to avail healthcare service in private hospitals, respectively. The elderly persons from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were three times (AOR: 3.29, 95%CI 2.5-4.8) more likely to visit government hospitals than their peers in Punjab. Participants who attended school (AOR: 1.21, 95%CI 0.82-1.31) were more likely to utilize healthcare service in private hospitals. Elders from rich (AOR: 1.04, 95%CI 0.84-1.13) and richest (AOR: 1.29, 95%CI 0.89-1.87) wealth quintiles were more likely to use healthcare in private hospitals. The likelihood of the utilization of healthcare service in private hospitals was 1.7 times higher for three or more consulting visits than the single visit, and 1.5 times higher in the public hospital. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underscore a dire need for expanding the outreach of healthcare services for the elderly population. It calls for effective implementation of policies which aim at improving equitable access to private healthcare services, and upgrading of government hospitals Moreover, the knowledge generated through this research may be employed to make social protection programs more responsive to age-related healthcare needs, and focused on caregiving for elderly living without spouse.

Assessing the prevalence trend of childhood pneumonia associated with indoor air pollution in Pakistan.

The indoor air pollution (IAP) is one of the leading risk factors of childhood pneumonia in developing countries. This study makes the first attempt to examine the prevalence trend of pneumonia among under-five children in Pakistan in association with IAP-related factors, using bivariate and multivariate statistical methods. Three waves of Pakistan Demographic Health Survey for 2006-2007, 2012-2013, and 2017-2018 were used. Our study findings showed a steady decline in the prevalence of pneumonia synchronized with the decreased use of polluting fuel during the last decade (2006-2017). In bivariate regression, odd ratios of childhood pneumonia were 1.27 and 1.21 times higher in overcrowded houses in 2006-2007 and 2012-2013, respectively, and 1.25 times higher in families relying on biomass for cooking in 2017-2018. In the multivariate model, polluting fuel and overcrowded homes had higher adjusted odd ratios of pneumonia in all survey years, and children age 37-48 months, older mothers, and large birth sized children had lower AOR of pneumonia in 2006-2007 and 2012-2013. Countrywide promotion of IAP mitigation measures such as sponsoring cleaner fuels, separate place for cooking, and lessening home overcrowding may play a vital role in alleviating the prevalence of childhood pneumonia.

Obesity: an independent risk factor for systemic oxidative stress.

The role of obesity in diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, colon cancer, sudden death and other cardiovascular diseases has confirmed in many recent research studies. In present study, it is hypothesized that obesity can serve as an independent risk factor for the decreased activities of cytoprotective antioxidants in humans and for the associated systemic oxidative stress. 150 age matched, female subjects with no history of smoking or biochemical evidence of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, renal or liver disease or cancer were included in the study and were divided into different grades of obesity according to their body mass index (BMI). Hemoglobin and erythrocyte glutathione (GSH) concentrations were measured for each subject. The study suggests that increase BMI was found to be associated with a significant decrease in erythrocyte glutathione concentration. From these observations it is concluded that obesity even in the absence of smoking, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, renal or liver diseases can decrease the activities of body's protective antioxidants, and can enhance the systemic oxidative stress and should therefore receive the same attention as obesity with complications.